It is understood that in 2010, from Shenhua Group to many enterprises, the coal chemical industry ushered in a "bull market".

"Since 2008, the international oil price has been around us $100 / barrel for a long time, coupled with the smooth operation of Shenhua Baotou coal chemical industry and the breakthrough of coal to olefin technology, there has been a great development in China's coal to olefin project investment after 2010." Lu gendi, the price information director of the synthetic resin Department of Sinopec Chemical Sales East China branch, said that especially since 2013, the national policy threshold has been loosened, the continuous decline of coal prices and the growing shortage of natural gas have further stimulated the investment enthusiasm of enterprises and local governments.

According to Zhang Zhihong, deputy general manager of Hubei Jingzhou coal, electricity and Chemical Industry Development Co., Ltd. of China Three Gorges Corporation, the total investment of domestic coal chemical projects has reached about 500 billion yuan since 2013. At present, there are 26 coal to oil projects, 58 coal to olefin projects and 67 coal to natural gas projects in China. According to this estimation, by 2020, the annual production capacity of coal to oil and coal to gas will reach 40 million tons and 280 billion cubic meters, and the production capacity of coal to olefins may reach 40 million tons.

However, it is reported that in the past year, due to the gradual entry of crude oil into the era of low price, the investment in coal chemical industry has decreased a lot, and the number of new projects has also decreased.

"The investment in a standard coal to olefin project is about 20 billion yuan. After the introduction of the new national guidelines and policies, there are many requirements for coal chemical industry, including environmental protection requirements and plant density requirements, and the investment cost will rise further in the future." Lu gendi said.

Even so, due to the resource endowment, coal chemical industry will still be a large strategic layout in China in the future. "In view of the current investment in coal chemical industry, the market needs to pay attention to two problems." In the view of Wu Xing, chairman of Shenzhen Kaifeng Investment Management Co., Ltd., on the one hand, the "ten articles on water" from the State Council will be more strict in the treatment of high concentration sewage, on the other hand, the investment cost is too high. "If the era of low interest rate comes, the investment cost will be reduced and the overall competitiveness of the coal chemical market will be improved."

Overall, although coal chemical industry has no advantage in cost at present, and the pace of "bull market" has stalled, it is still an important component of raw material diversification after all. In particular, due to the low variable cost of raw materials and strong tolerance to low oil prices, even the crude oil price of 40-50 US dollars / barrel can not impact its production. Many insiders believe that in the future, there will be no one-sided game between coal and oil, and the pendulum movement is more likely to appear.